Swine Flu – Has it Started to Mutate?
Swine Flu is spreading so fast that the World Health Organisation (WHO) stopped tracking world cases the 6th July 2009. The very latest recorded reported case count of the 10 worst affected Countries by the WHO and ECDC.
* United States (USA) 40,620 (US Government estimates 1 million cases)
* Mexico 12,521
* Australia 12,048
* Chile 10,926
* Britain 10,649 (UK Government estimates 55,000 million cases)
* Canada 10,000
* Japan 4,027
* Thailand 4,000
* Argentina 3,056 (Argentine Government 100,000 cases)
* Philippines 2,668
The WHO has confirmed that the H1N1 virus is spreading at unprecedented speed as modern travel spreads the virus at alarming rates and that it could turn deadly at any time, particularly as it reaches its second stage of infection in the cold weather as in the 1918-1919 pandemic when up to 50 million died.
Dr. Anne Schuchat director for the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that “Complacency is a major concern. This virus is a new one, and on top of that, we really still do not know how it is going to behave, there are special efforts that have been carried out by the various health agencies, but individuals also need to be prepared and have steps in place should a family member get sick or a workplace close down or a situation arise that requires working from home.”
Dr. Schuchat continued, “This year we are seeing the H1N1 virus circulating through summer camps and military units, so I’m expecting we may see an increase in cases once schools starts, but we don’t definitely know that for sure.”
In view of the above it has been suggested that schools should not be opened after the summer break until Tamiflu vaccines are available, as the infection seems to be more severe in young people and less severe in the elderly.
Sir Liam Donaldson the UK’s chief medical officer and an expert on pandemics as projected that swine flu infections will ultimately reach 50% with a mortality rate of 0.4%, which will be problematical as most of the spread will occur before the a vaccine is available.
The WHO has recorded that swine flu has behaved differently to seasonal flu because it has spread in quickly in summer temperatures and high humidity which has not been the case with the normal seasonal flu virus. They are now concerned that it could more deadly at any time, especially if it mutates and combines with H5N1 bird flu in the Asian areas.
Argentina is a case in point as the virus appears to have mutated back to its source from humans to pigs. But looking on the optimistic side, some experts believe that countries now taking the brunt of the flu infection Mexico, U.S. and Britain amongst others may prove fortunate since they will enjoy some immunity during the second phase, when it is expected to be more virulent as witnessed in the pandemic of 1918-1919.
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